Indians will remember 26th November 2008 for next many years for obvious reasons. At least right now I can write “for obvious reasons”, as Indians (I don’t know much about other nationalities) don’t remember bad things long. Although it’s a different issue that their memory for good events are even shorter. For example, if I ask weren’t 30th January 1948 or 13th April 1919 more important, many Indians would find themselves puzzled. If we think the dates are too archaic to remember, can we guess why 22nd October 2008 is so significant. I bet most of us would not be able to answer with confidence.
All of us have been witnessing the media frenzy, mass hysteria and roaring slogans since 26th November 2008. This massacre took many lives, affected even more families and left an indelible remark on the minds of some Indians. The point of concern is not the cost but cost of bringing a mechanism which would avoid further such tragedy. However, there are things which we must think and analyze while we take next steps. I know, I can talk like this because I am not a direct sufferer; however I believe all of us have had our share of sufferings at some point of time in our life without exception.
There are many problems in the world and all of these are important. Every time someone raises an issue general mass backed up by media or vice versa demand solution. We always say that we know the problem well enough, provide us with practical workable solution. In most of the cases, it is true also. However, the point is if do we really understand the problem or it is just that we perceive that we understand it. In general, problems get manifested in some acts, impact or influence and it is these manifestations that we understand not the problem per se. Many people would not agree to it and they have valid reasons for the same. I don’t disagree either. There are people who understand but there are many more who perceive that they understand.
On the issue of Mumbai terror attack, the jury is out. Entire media and so called exerts claim to have identified the problem. Pakistan is the root cause so fix Pakistan and all other related issues will be sorted out. Public protests fueled by electronic media activism are saying “enough is enough” and they need concrete action. Politicians are under pressure to do something and so they are doing “something”. India went to the UNSC for ban on a group in Pakistan and they got it! Is everything so simple and straight? Do we really understand the complexity of the issue?
There is no doubt that lives are precious and people must feel safe and secure, but do we really know why we are unsafe? Wasn’t the attack in Mumbai (I hate using attack on Mumbai) the manifestation of the problems like all earlier attacks? I have been listening to the debates and opinion of the public, the high profile dignitaries, the ministers and the experts and it seems that fixing Pakistan would provide a panacea to this problem of terrorism at least in India. This time the United States, the UK and almost all western countries are with us. They all are asking Pakistan to act and this provides vindication to what we have been telling to the world for more than a decade! But why suddenly so much sympathy or support for India? Were lives in Mumbai so close to the heart of the US, the UK and other western countries? Is it because for the first time their citizens were targeted outside their home countries with such sophistication? There is no clear answer, at least I don’t know.
To know all this probably we will have to look into Pakistan. On the one hand, India says that civilian government in Pakistan has no real power, ISI is not under the civilian government, on the other hand we demand strong action against terrorist establishments in Pakistan from the civilian government. We say, these terrorists have supports from Pakistani military establishments, and the civilian government has no control over military establishment, then how come failure on the part of civilian government provides us with enough legitimacy to take action against Pakistan. And, the most interesting and noticeable point is the fact that the US shares our views on this. The point that haunts is, is this our view or the US’s view, and we are just a medium of expression. Some analysts say, any tension between India and Pakistan will weaken the civilian government in Pakistan and strengthen military establishment and extremist groups, which would turn out to be even bigger problem for India in the long run. Also, any real, potential or perceived problem on military front in Pakistan will jeopardize the anti Taliban movement on Afgan border. The point is, does not the US know all these equations. If they know, which everyone knows, they know, why they are allowing this tension to grow so far. Why the approach is so different than what it was in 2002 when the Indian Parliament was attacked. If we observe the recent developments, the US has given enough legitimacy to India to take any action by saying 26/11 been India’s 9/11. We all know, the United States can force the civilian government in Pakistan at the same time it has enough clutches in hand to make Pakistani military or even ISI to act. Can’t US influence IMF, can’t US stop arms supply to Pakistan. Can’t it take any action in the name of international threat if Pakistan’s nuclear capability goes in the wrong hand? I believe all of these are possible and part of several viable options. However, the approach is very different this time.
There are another aspect also, the Arab world have sympathy for Pakistan. In the Arab world (barring few countries) the jury has given verdict that the US, the UK, Israel and India (!) were responsible for the Mumbai attack. Many would find it difficult to digest that the US would annoy its allies in the Arab world at this juncture, when they are planning to leave Iraq at the earliest and that also for a reason which directly has no relation with American war in Afghanistan rather would be detrimental to their efforts in Afghanistan.
I believe the issue is not as simple and straight as we think. There is something serious and deeper inside. If we look at American diplomacy and historical records, they have not shown real friendship (here I mean long term) to any country except Israel, which is like a younger brother to the US, not even to the United Kingdom. If ever they have supported a country, there always have been strong American interests in the back. I strongly believe, America is not doing all this favor just for the sake of its words on global war against terror. American just can’t do it. The timing is another factor to look at; Obama will be taking over next month who has said that Al Qaeda will be the priority!
All of us have been witnessing the media frenzy, mass hysteria and roaring slogans since 26th November 2008. This massacre took many lives, affected even more families and left an indelible remark on the minds of some Indians. The point of concern is not the cost but cost of bringing a mechanism which would avoid further such tragedy. However, there are things which we must think and analyze while we take next steps. I know, I can talk like this because I am not a direct sufferer; however I believe all of us have had our share of sufferings at some point of time in our life without exception.
There are many problems in the world and all of these are important. Every time someone raises an issue general mass backed up by media or vice versa demand solution. We always say that we know the problem well enough, provide us with practical workable solution. In most of the cases, it is true also. However, the point is if do we really understand the problem or it is just that we perceive that we understand it. In general, problems get manifested in some acts, impact or influence and it is these manifestations that we understand not the problem per se. Many people would not agree to it and they have valid reasons for the same. I don’t disagree either. There are people who understand but there are many more who perceive that they understand.
On the issue of Mumbai terror attack, the jury is out. Entire media and so called exerts claim to have identified the problem. Pakistan is the root cause so fix Pakistan and all other related issues will be sorted out. Public protests fueled by electronic media activism are saying “enough is enough” and they need concrete action. Politicians are under pressure to do something and so they are doing “something”. India went to the UNSC for ban on a group in Pakistan and they got it! Is everything so simple and straight? Do we really understand the complexity of the issue?
There is no doubt that lives are precious and people must feel safe and secure, but do we really know why we are unsafe? Wasn’t the attack in Mumbai (I hate using attack on Mumbai) the manifestation of the problems like all earlier attacks? I have been listening to the debates and opinion of the public, the high profile dignitaries, the ministers and the experts and it seems that fixing Pakistan would provide a panacea to this problem of terrorism at least in India. This time the United States, the UK and almost all western countries are with us. They all are asking Pakistan to act and this provides vindication to what we have been telling to the world for more than a decade! But why suddenly so much sympathy or support for India? Were lives in Mumbai so close to the heart of the US, the UK and other western countries? Is it because for the first time their citizens were targeted outside their home countries with such sophistication? There is no clear answer, at least I don’t know.
To know all this probably we will have to look into Pakistan. On the one hand, India says that civilian government in Pakistan has no real power, ISI is not under the civilian government, on the other hand we demand strong action against terrorist establishments in Pakistan from the civilian government. We say, these terrorists have supports from Pakistani military establishments, and the civilian government has no control over military establishment, then how come failure on the part of civilian government provides us with enough legitimacy to take action against Pakistan. And, the most interesting and noticeable point is the fact that the US shares our views on this. The point that haunts is, is this our view or the US’s view, and we are just a medium of expression. Some analysts say, any tension between India and Pakistan will weaken the civilian government in Pakistan and strengthen military establishment and extremist groups, which would turn out to be even bigger problem for India in the long run. Also, any real, potential or perceived problem on military front in Pakistan will jeopardize the anti Taliban movement on Afgan border. The point is, does not the US know all these equations. If they know, which everyone knows, they know, why they are allowing this tension to grow so far. Why the approach is so different than what it was in 2002 when the Indian Parliament was attacked. If we observe the recent developments, the US has given enough legitimacy to India to take any action by saying 26/11 been India’s 9/11. We all know, the United States can force the civilian government in Pakistan at the same time it has enough clutches in hand to make Pakistani military or even ISI to act. Can’t US influence IMF, can’t US stop arms supply to Pakistan. Can’t it take any action in the name of international threat if Pakistan’s nuclear capability goes in the wrong hand? I believe all of these are possible and part of several viable options. However, the approach is very different this time.
There are another aspect also, the Arab world have sympathy for Pakistan. In the Arab world (barring few countries) the jury has given verdict that the US, the UK, Israel and India (!) were responsible for the Mumbai attack. Many would find it difficult to digest that the US would annoy its allies in the Arab world at this juncture, when they are planning to leave Iraq at the earliest and that also for a reason which directly has no relation with American war in Afghanistan rather would be detrimental to their efforts in Afghanistan.
I believe the issue is not as simple and straight as we think. There is something serious and deeper inside. If we look at American diplomacy and historical records, they have not shown real friendship (here I mean long term) to any country except Israel, which is like a younger brother to the US, not even to the United Kingdom. If ever they have supported a country, there always have been strong American interests in the back. I strongly believe, America is not doing all this favor just for the sake of its words on global war against terror. American just can’t do it. The timing is another factor to look at; Obama will be taking over next month who has said that Al Qaeda will be the priority!
It seems that, America wants the civilian government to fail in Pakistan. This time they want this to be proven on factual ground and nothing can be better than the case at hand “Mumbai attack”, where a terrorist is still alive! The US know the public sentiment in India, the government is under tremendous pressure to act, act against Pakistan. Any other terrorist activity at this point would seal the fate of all major political parties in India, yes not just the Congress. Indian government knows another terror activity- major or minor- would happen, certainly happen and they want to act before that. They have already taken popular decisions at home by introducing new bills in the parliament, which got support from opposition parties. India has started showing its teeth and this time they threaten to bite. They have enough liberty both at home and from international community which factually have become just the United States. But, the point is, don’t Indian think tanks know the consequences of any military strike. Yes, they do know but there are larger things at stake. The US will allow this tension to grow at a point where, the civilian government would be declared ineffective and military takes over citing national security as a reason. However, this time it would not be a coup like it happened during Nawaz Sharif. America can’t repeat the mistake of allowing any strong man to take charge in Pakistan. This time it would be puppet, backed by the US government, which would allow full fledged American military operation inside Pakistan. America has learnt over last few years, “if you have to catch Saddam, you have to enter into Iraq”. But the question is what India will get out all these. Remember it’s the question which happens to be complicated not the answer. For India, anyone who can control Pakistani military and ISI would be better and they know no one except the US can do this.
The whole scenario might be even more complicated. But that just brings another point; let’s think well before giving verdict. I am not making any point for war or against war. The point that I am trying to drive at is things are not as simple as it seems. No matter what let’s take an informed and well calculated and prepared decision and for this there is nothing new to discover, we should just remember what has happened in the past. That would provide us with enough jurisprudence and ideas to form an opinion and arrive at a conclusion.
The whole scenario might be even more complicated. But that just brings another point; let’s think well before giving verdict. I am not making any point for war or against war. The point that I am trying to drive at is things are not as simple as it seems. No matter what let’s take an informed and well calculated and prepared decision and for this there is nothing new to discover, we should just remember what has happened in the past. That would provide us with enough jurisprudence and ideas to form an opinion and arrive at a conclusion.
Feedback welcomed.
